Weekly Fundamental News – April 7, 2014
News activity for this week will be above average.
China’s observation of Tomb Sweeping Day has added to the Monday lull. Earlier today, the only noteworthy news releases were Australia’s ANZ Job Advertisements, and Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index and Foreign Currency Reserves. Only the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey made headlines in North America.
Tuesday will have more activity, particularly with New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Index; National Australia Bank NAB Business Confidence Index; Japan’s Current Account data as well as Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ press conference; United Kingdom’s Manufacturing Production; US JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary); and Canada’s Building Permits.
Wednesday’s activity slides with only these on offer: Australia’s Westpac Banking’s Consumer Sentiment Index, China’s New Loans, Germany and UK Trade Balance; and US FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Activity picks up again on Thursday with Business New Zealand Manufacturing Index; Japan’s Core Machinery Orders; Australia’s MI Inflations Expectations, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate; China’s Trade Balance; UK BOE Official Bank Rate announcement and statement; and US Import Prices and Unemployment Claims.
Friday economic calendar will start quite early with Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; China’s Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index; US Producer Price Index and preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Weekly Technical Analysis: April 7, 2014
EURUSD
With three consecutive downweeks under their belt, bears have come much closer to the important area of 1.3600-1.3650. This area, if broken, could yield greater momentum for bears and that is something bulls do not want to happen. Bulls must fight for a move through 1.3800, an area that has held them back since March 26.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD remains largely undecided in terms of direction. The pair has stayed below the critical 1.6700 level but sellers have not been able to depress price further. Keep an eye on 1.6700 as well as 1.6450. Whichever camp moves with conviction could have a lead for the entire week or month.
USDJPY
Well, we did see a third consecutive weekly advance, but the move was stunted by a Friday dive in price during the North American session which pulverized most of the week’s gains in a matter of about 5 hours. Enough buyers may have been irritated by this USDJPY and would likely decide to enter later. 103 is the initial area to crack. 102 would be a critical support.
EURJPY
EURJPY displayed a similar price action last week to that of USDJPY’s, but the former ended the week in the red. The trading range has tightened further, so we could see a pop in either direction this week. We will see whether support around 141 has become sturdier indeed in the past several weeks.
AUDUSD
Marginal gains last week were not enough to bring AUDUSD to close above the 0.9300 level. However, the pair could try to break north again this week. Near-term support remains shallow so you should not be surprised if we see a downside break. Scope for a move to 0.9700 is still a possibility.
