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Weekly Fundamental News – April 14, 2014

Weekly Fundamental NewsCompared to today’s scarcity, Tuesday will gain more activity with Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; UK BRC Retail Sales monitor, PPI Input, CPI, HPI, and RPI; Euro-area and GermanyZEW Economic Sentiment; Canada’s Manufacturing Sales; US Empire State Manufacturing Index, Consumer Price Index,NAHB Housing Market Index, TIC Long-term Purchases, and Federal Reserve Chair’s Yellen’s speech.

Wednesday will be busier with New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index; China’s Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, and GDP; Bank of Japan Kuroda’s speech at the Trust Companies Association of Japan in Tokyo; UK Unemployment Rate and Claimant Count Change; Euro-area Consumer Price Index; Canada’s Foreign Securities Purchases, BOC Monetary Policy Report and Rate Statement and Announcement; US Building Permits, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Housing Starts.

Thursday’s news activity declinesslightly with Bank of Japan Kuroda’s speech at the Branch Managers Meeting in Tokyo; Australia’sNew Motor Vehicle Sales and NAB Quarterly Business Confidence; Eurozone Current Account; Germany’s Producer Price Index; Canada’s CPI; US Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

The one-and-only news release this coming Friday is Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity. Good Friday will be observed today on Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Switzerland, the UK, and Canada.

Weekly Technical Analysis: April 14, 2014


Monday’s EURUSD action saw a gap down, following an impressive rally last week. The tenacity of bulls will be tested this week and we will see if 1.3800 would hold its ground. We mentioned 1.3800 as an important area last week, and I think it will remain so this week.


GBPUSD succeeded in remaining close to multi-year highs at the low-1.6800s and this puts bears in serious jitters. The minor pullback seen on Thursday and Friday won’t deter bulls from pursuing new highs this week and throughout April. 1.6600 and 1.6700 should ideally hold.


Critical support in USDJPY’s 102 level has been smashed into pieces, particularly by a 155-pip drop on Tuesday last week. Now, price is in another critical area and bears might try another devastating move. They need it because bulls are likely lurking between 100-101.


NZDUSD showed resilience last week as it printed its 6th bullish weekly close in the last 7 weeks. This week, expect another jab at the highs as bulls aim for the July 2011 high at 0.8842. Sufficient support is expected between 0.8500 and 0.8600.


USDCAD declined close to 150 pips last week but bulls showed commendable composure and mustered enough strength to end the week with a bullish close. It ain’t over for them though as substantial barriers to higher prices lie above. On the downside, a move toward 1.0600-1.0700 is likely if sellers can replicate last week’s move but they need to attack with more conviction to avoid a repeat of that week’s embarrassing defeat.

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