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Weekly Forex Market News – March 31, 2014

ForexStarting yesterday, the Daylight Saving Time shift has been in effect throughout the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and several European countries. On the other hand, Australia and New Zealand will exit DST this weekend (April 5 and 6, respectively).

For the first day of April (Tuesday), the key data out of the economic calendar will be: Japan’s Tankan Indices; China’s Manufacturing PMI (HSBC and CFLP); Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cash Rate Announcement and Statement; ECOFIN Meetings; Germany’s Unemployment Change; UK Manufacturing PMI; and US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

On Wednesday: Australia’s Building Approvals; UK Nationwide HPI; Spain’s Unemployment Change; UK Construction PMI; ECOFIN Meetings (Day 2); US ADP Non-Farm jobs data and Factory Orders.

On Thursday: Australia’s Trade Balance and Retail Sales; China’s Non-Manufacturing PMI; UK, Spain, and Italy Services PMI; European Central Bank Rate Announcement and Presscon; Canada and US Trade Balance; US Jobless Claims and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Friday’s key economic calendar list will be very brief: UK Halifax HPI; German Factory Orders; US and Canada jobs data; and Canada’s Ivey PMI.

Weekly Technical Analysis: March 31, 2014


With two consecutive downweeks printed, EURUSD bears are getting bolder and now likely aiming for a retest of the 1.3600-3650 region. Bulls need to keep the pair afloat and bring it back above 1.3800 to ward off the confident bears. The key battleground for this week would be the 1.3800-1.3900 area and 1.3700.


Buyers and sellers in GBPUSD are waging their own battle at the 1.6700 level and unlike in the case of EURUSD, buyers are ahead in GBPUSD. Just a week ago, the pair was on the brink of a collapse through the 1.6500 level; now, GBPUSD is trading very close to the 1.6700 battleground. Key resistance is found at 1.6800.


It looks like the multi-month consolidation seen in USDJPY is drawing to a close. Based on recent price action, this pair is poised for a potential move northward, particularly if buyers can push price past the 104 level. Will we see a third consecutive weekly advance? We will find out soon enough.


Apparently, the 0.8900 level in USDCHF is too hard for bulls to crack as this area has capped the advance in this pair for one full month now. If sellers will not take this chance and try for a move toward 0.8700, we will surely see another shot at 0.8900. However, resistance up ahead is not far away (0.9000 all the way to 0.9200).


NZDUSD saw five consecutive weekly advances. Will buyers make it the sixth time around? That is the critical question right now as the pair gets comfortable in trading around prices unseen since August 2011. If the 0.8600 will continue to keep the pair supported, we could see this pair reach for higher highs in the coming week/s.

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